December 23, 2024
A powerful cold front is forecast to sweep through southeastern Australia on Thursday, bringing northwesterly gales ahead of an equally strong southwesterly change. This combination poses a significant bushfire risk, particularly in Victoria, where the front is expected to arrive during the afternoon and evening.
High temperatures and strong wind gusts will fuel significant bushfire dangers on Thursday. Source: MetCentre
Summer Bushfire Risks Intensify
Summer is typically the dry season for much of South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, and southern NSW, increasing the risk of bushfires compared to northern Australia, where summer coincides with the wet season. While cold fronts have been infrequent over the past month—allowing humid, easterly winds to fuel an early wet season in the north—this pattern is about to shift.
Extreme (orange) to catastrophic (red) bushfire dangers are currently forecast on Thursday. Source: Weatherwatch GIS Weather Platform.
Gale-Force Winds and Soaring Temperatures
Gusty winds are already impacting Victoria and Tasmania today, with snow flurries expected over the higher peaks as the first in a series of cold fronts takes hold. However, the main cold front on Thursday brings more significant concerns:
Gale-force northwesterly winds will drive temperatures to over 40°C across Victoria.
A sharp W/SW wind change in the afternoon and evening could rapidly broaden fire fronts, exacerbating bushfire conditions.
EC Wind gusts (in knots) showing widespread 30-45 knot wind gusts (55-80km/h) both ahead and behind a strong cold front. Source: MetCentre
The wind change is particularly dangerous, as it can transform a narrow fire front into a much broader one. Once a fire is established, cooler temperatures make little difference—strong winds can intensify flames and create fast-moving fire fronts.
GFS 850mb temperature anomaly showing a broad region of above average 850mb temperatures ahead of a colder airmass. Source: MetCentre
Fire Danger to Extend into NSW
On Friday, gusty winds and high temperatures will spread into NSW, increasing fire danger across much of the state.
While not expected to be as severe, high temperatures and further gusty winds will drive further fire concerns into NSW on Friday. Source: MetCentre
Be Prepared
While Christmas Day is expected to bring pleasant weather across much of the country, Boxing Day poses significant risks for bushfire-prone areas. Australians are all too familiar with the destructive nature of bushfires.
Now is the time to review and prepare your bushfire action plan. Stay informed by following the advice of local authorities, and ensure your household and business is prepared should you be impacted.
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