February 27, 2025
As Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred continues its southward march, impacts to the Queensland coastline are set to increase over the weekend and early next week, with gale-force winds and dangerous swells developing. Fortunately, a direct hit is becoming increasingly unlikely—but while this is not the most probable scenario, it can't be entirely ruled out.
Forecast model guidance is becoming increasingly favoured of Alfred remaining offshore, but a small number of scenarios still carry Alfred close to or over the coastline. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre.
Alfred Strengthens, but a Direct Impact Looks Unlikely
Overnight, Alfred intensified to a Category 3 system, packing wind gusts of 185km/h. Further intensification is possible today as the system continues moving southward. However, on Saturday, Alfred is expected to shift towards the southwest, bringing it closer to the Queensland coastline.
This shift is being driven by a mid-level ridge that is currently influencing the Coral Sea. However, this steering influence is expected to be short-lived. By early next week, an upper trough is forecast to alter the steering flow once again, turning Alfred to the southeast—away from Queensland.
An upper trough is expected to keep Alfred further offshore. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre.
Strong Winds, Dangerous Swells & Coastal Erosion Possible
Even without a direct landfall, Alfred will still bring adverse impacts to parts of the southern to central Queensland coastline.
Gale-force wind gusts are expected across the southern Queensland coastline early next week, possibly occurring earlier about the Central Queensland coastline.
Large swells and strong winds may lead to coastal erosion, particularly along exposed beaches.
Showers are likely, though at this stage, widespread heavy rainfall remains unlikely.
There remains variance in how close Alfred may drift to the coastline, with a closer arrival bringing stronger winds. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre.
Could Alfred Linger Longer Than Expected?
While a southeast movement is likely, it's still possible that Alfred may become slow moving off the southern Queensland coastline (which will keep Queenslanders on their toes for just a little longer). This could see a fairly windy week and prolonged periods of large swells to the southern Queensland coastline. Showers are likely but similarly, scenarios bringing heavy rainfall are few and far between and most likely rainfall is unlikely to be significant.
Stay Cautious Despite the Reduced Risk
Although a direct hit is looking less likely, Alfred still demands attention:
Monitor updates. Forecast adjustments are still possible.
Be cautious near trees. Gales can bring down large branches or trees—avoid parking or walking near them.
Stay away from the beaches. Large dangerous swells will likely make swimming, surfing, and boating hazardous.
While Alfred is keeping Queenslanders on edge, the latest forecast trends suggest a reduced risk of a landfall—but as always, tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea can be unpredictable and our team of meteorologists will continue to closely monitor Alfred's movement.
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