January 21, 2025
It’s been a warm day in Brisbane, with the western suburbs hitting 33°C—not overly hot by summer standards, but the high humidity nudged the apparent temperature to a sticky 35°C. Unfortunately, the heat and humidity are only set to intensify in the coming days, making conditions feel quite oppressive. Perhaps the biggest surprise was a severe hailstorm that impacted parts of the Ipswich and Brisbane Valley areas in the afternoon - a weak storm interacted with the seabreeze front which resulted in a period of intensification.
Large hail occurred in the Minden - Marburg region while a shed was destroyed in the same area.
Heatwave & Storms on the Horizon
Wednesday will see Brisbane’s temperature rise into the mid-30s, but the feels-like temperature could climb into the high 30s due to the humidity. Isolated showers and storms are also on the cards, particularly west of Brisbane along the ranges. This activity could extend into parts of the Brisbane and Lockyer Valley regions, as well as the Scenic Rim, Ipswich, and even down into the NSW ranges.
ACCESS CAPE tomorrow. Instability to increase tomorrow however a strong cap will see storm activity remain very isolated (more likely away from the coastline). Source: MetCentre
Thursday Brings Highest Storm Potential
Temperatures may dip slightly to 33°C on Thursday, but don’t be fooled—the high humidity could push the "feels-like" temperature to 37–38°C. This day also brings the highest chance of severe storm activity, thanks to a combination of strong instability and moderately supportive wind shear in what could be a type of Modified Southeast Change (which are notorious for generating supercell storms). The inland areas of the Southeast Coast will be most at risk, with threats of large hail and damaging winds. While storms could reach Brisbane and other coastal locations, there’s some uncertainty regarding their exact placement as the southeast change may reduce potential here a little.
ACCESS CAPE on Thursday with surface winds showing a SE change mixing in with very high levels of instability that could bring significant severe storm activity (chiefly just inland from the coastline). Source: MetCentre
Strong CAPE and CAP on the forecast sounding. Any storms that develop in this environment are likely to become severe, with supercell potential should the cap break. Source: MetCentre
Knife-Edge Storm Setup for Friday as Heat Increases
Friday poses a more complex forecast, with hot NW winds pushing the moisture boundary closer to the coastline. This will create very high instability along the coast, but just 50km west, drier air will sharply reduce storm potential. The positioning of the trough or dryline will be critical in determining the storm risk. At this stage, only very isolated severe storms are expected, but any storms that form could pack a punch.
Note the dry air just above the surface which may reduce the risk of storm activity on Friday. Source: MetCentre
Cooler Relief on the Weekend
The weekend will bring some relief as milder southeast winds usher in partly cloudy skies and slightly cooler conditions, putting an end to the heatwave.
Looking Further Ahead: Tropical Cyclone Potential - But No Guarantee
In the long term, forecast models are continuing to 'dance' around various tropical cyclone potential across northern Australia. It’s important to remember that weather forecasts beyond 5–7 days decrease significantly in accuracy. If you'd like to understand more why that occurs - check out a recent story here.
This means that while the trend suggests an increased likelihood of tropical cyclone activity around the end of the month and into early February, it’s by no means a certainty. Additionally, it’s far too early to determine where any system may develop.
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