February 8, 2025
Severe weather is set to impact multiple parts of Australia over the coming days, with an upper low driving heavy and potentially severe shower and storm activity across NSW. Meanwhile, a monsoon low in the Indian Ocean is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone, potentially impacting Western Australia. Northeastern Queensland is also still on alert, with more heavy rainfall likely in flood-affected areas.
Severe Storms & Heavy Rain for NSW
Next 5 days rainfall across NSW showing moderate to heavy falls on the way according to ACCESS and EC modelling. This will be fueled by easterly winds feeding into an upper trough / upper low that will lie over the region. Source: MetCentre
A slow-moving upper trough is extending into NSW today, combining with a surface trough to bring scattered showers and storms. Moderate instability will likely result in some storms becoming severe, with damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding possible due to slow-moving storm activity. While severe storms are already forming today, this trend will continue for a few days.
Precipitable water and surface winds showing humid E/NE winds flowing across from the Pacific Ocean into NSW. Much higher moisture will persist across the tropics along the monsoon trough. Source: MetCentre
Of particular concern is the expected development of a cut-off upper low from tomorrow,
which will become slow-moving and intensify rain, showers, and storms through Monday and potentially Tuesday. Widespread falls of 50-100mm could lead to flash flooding and possible localised riverine flooding in southeastern and central eastern NSW. The heaviest falls are expected on Monday, though upper lows are notoriously unpredictable and may linger longer than expected.
500mb temperatures and winds during tomorrow (Sunday) and Monday showing the formation of a cut-off upper low across southern NSW that will provide lift and instability to produce shower and storm activity. Source: MetCentre
WA Braces for a Developing Tropical Cyclone
There was some uncertainty around the movement of a monsoon low off the northwest WA coastline in recent days, but a mid-level ridge induced by the extreme heat over Western Australia has pushed the system westward into the Indian Ocean. With very warm ocean temperatures, it is highly likely to develop into a tropical cyclone within 48-60 hours, bringing the risk of gales to parts of the Kimberley and possibly the Pilbara.
There's a range of scenarios likely - latest EC modelling runs the system further west than the BoM. The exact movement will depend on how (and if) the system interacts with an upper trough to its south early to mid next week. Source: MetCentre
Beyond this, its track remains uncertain. Another upper trough moving into southern WA early next week may cause the system to recurve, increasing the chances of a coastal crossing in northwestern WA. However, some models suggest it may continue westward, either remaining offshore or making landfall further west. Regardless of its track, rain and winds are expected to increase along the coastline in the coming days.
Sharp upper trough approaches on Tuesday. This may cause the expected tropical cyclone to turn towards the WA coastline next week. Source: MetCentre
Northern Queensland: A Wet February Breaks Records, More On the Way
While there’s light at the end of the tunnel for flood-affected areas in northern Queensland, more rain is still on the way. Today, Townsville officially recorded its wettest February on record, reaching 991.8mm—surpassing the previous record of 964mm set in 2019. Impressively, this breaks a 154-year record, with rainfall data dating back to 1871. With three weeks left in February, there’s a real chance Townsville could also break its wettest month on record (1141.7mm, set in January 1953).
The good news is that the convergence line responsible for the relentless rain over the past eight days should begin to shift northwards after tomorrow. While this will push heavier rain further north, it could bring some relief to the areas between Cairns and Townsville that have experienced repeated heavy falls. However, a small low may still generate localised moderate falls on Monday and Tuesday, meaning that while the worst may ease, some lingering rainfall remains possible before the system clears.
Next 5 days rainfall across northern NSW showing moderate to heavy falls persisting across the region, though this is expected to ease over the coming days. Source: MetCentre
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