October 4, 2024
This morning brought a chilly start to the day in the eastern capitals—Brisbane's western suburbs in Ipswich dropped to a brisk 6°C, a full 7°C below the October average! Similarly, Sydney’s western suburbs dipped to 7°C, 4°C below average. But don’t get too comfortable with the cooler weather—summer warmth and the beginnings of storm season are on the horizon.
Warmer Days Ahead
A series of cold fronts will sweep across southeastern Australia, increasing the W/NW flow over NSW and Queensland. This will pull heat across from central Australia, bringing much warmer temperatures. By early next week, temperatures in Sydney’s western suburbs are expected to climb toward 30°C, while Brisbane is set to see highs in the low 30s, and western Brisbane could reach the mid-30s.
GFS 850mb temperatures showing warm air pushing down from central Australia into Queensland and parts of NSW ahead of a large, cold pool of air across Victoria and Tasmania. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre
Severe Storms Possible on Some Days
The arrival of these cold fronts will also bring cooler air into the upper atmosphere—a key ingredient for spring thunderstorms which will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity. Currently, these are the main days to monitor:
Today (October 4): Inland NSW will experience weak instability, but strong upper wind shear could help intensify any storms that develop. Damaging winds and possibly some large hail are on the cards for today’s storms.
Tuesday (October 8): Early indications show a combination of ingredients favourable for severe thunderstorms in Southeast Queensland and Northeast NSW. While it's still a few days away, we'll be closely monitoring the setup as the forecast evolves.
ACCESS LI & soundings for inland NSW (today), and Southeastern Queensland (Tuesday). Tuesday currently poses the most concern, but storm setups often fluctuate significantly even a few days out. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre
Very Isolated Storms Over the Weekend
Over the weekend and into Monday, there’s a chance of isolated storms forming along a trough across inland Queensland, and possibly northern NSW on Saturday. However, dry conditions are likely to limit this activity, making any storms quite isolated.
ACCESS rainfall on Saturday and Sunday. This shows light rainfall across inland Queensland, the Northern Territory and even parts of NE NSW. Expect some very isolated storms to occur. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre
Prepare for Storm Season
As storm season approaches, now is the perfect time to ensure your business and household are prepared. If you haven’t already, check out our comprehensive Storm Season Preparation Guide for tips on staying safe and reducing storm-related risks. Thunderstorms will only become more frequent as we move toward the peak of the season, so it's essential to be ready.
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