February 22, 2025
Despite ocean temperatures across the Coral Sea hovering around 1°C above average for much of the summer, it’s been a remarkably quiet season for tropical cyclones in Queensland. Not a single tropical cyclone has formed within the Australian region of interest for Queensland—but that may be about to change.
A Tropical Low Takes Shape
A few days ago, a tropical low developed to the north of Cairns. This low is slowly tracking eastward and is expected to gradually intensify as it sits over the bath-like warmth of the northern Coral Sea.
Currently, a passing upper trough to the south is both helping to push the system eastward while providing higher levels of wind shear, which are making it difficult for the system to organise into a tropical cyclone.
Better Conditions for Development Ahead
In the coming days, the upper systems to the south will weaken, replaced by a broad mid-level ridge across eastern Australia. This will occur as warm air pushes down from the north, while a weak Jetstream persists to the south.
This setup is expected to create a more favourable environment for intensification with mid-level wind shear weakening, while a jetstream to the south will still be present helping to increase divergence and provide good outflow
Forecast Track Uncertainty: A Challenge in the Coral Sea
The development of the mid-level ridge across eastern Australia introduces some complexity in movement. For weeks, Queensland has been 'shielded' by frequent upper troughs, steering tropical systems southeastward.
A mid-level ridge is expected to track into eastern Australia later this week which may allow the system (should it develop) to track a little closer to the coastline. Source: MetCentre
However, with the ridge in place, mid-level winds may tend more easterly, introducing the possibility of eventual westward movement—something that hasn’t been a major factor in previous systems this season.
This doesn’t mean the system will definitely impact the Queensland coastline, just the chance of an impact (or a system hovering closer to the coastline) will be higher than previous lows that have simply kept tracking away from the Queensland coastline.
A Model as a Tropical Cyclone Forecast to Hit Me in 10 Days - Should I be Worried?
Weather vigilance is always a good thing - but expect a significant degree of variation between model outlooks each run. Tropical cyclones are extremely difficult to forecast - its quite normal to see forecast paths of long-range tropical cyclones change significantly from run to run and this happens multiple times each year. A good example was the Townsville flooding - early forecasts had this system impacting Southeast Queensland as a tropical cyclone. Not only did a tropical cyclone not form, the impact was over 1000km away!
The last potential significant system for Queensland was nothing like what long-range forecasts suggested, including occurring in a completely different area of the state than forecast. This is why long-range forecasts should always be taken with a grain of salt. Source: MetCentre
What to Expect Next?
Regardless of whether this system becomes a named tropical cyclone and whether it remains well offshore or nudges closer to the coastline, it is likely to bring:
🌬️ Gusty winds to coastal areas
🌊 Increasing swells along the Queensland coastline
🌧️ Potentially increased showers
We remind readers that forecast models will continue to shift and evolve over the coming days. Don’t take any single model run too seriously yet—a clearer picture should hopefully emerge next week.
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