October18, 2024
Today marks the final significant day of the multi-day severe thunderstorm event that has impacted South Australia, NSW, and Victoria. Rain and cloud have cleared ahead of a trough and cold front, allowing instability to strengthen across the region.
Overnight rain and cloud has cleared but has left moisture pooling ahead of a trough and cold front. Expect showers and storms to develop and increase over the coming hours and then may track as far east as the NSW coastline overnight. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre
Severe Storms in NSW & Victoria
A combination of moderate to strong levels of instability and very strong wind shear is creating ideal conditions for severe storm development, particularly across central to northern Victoria and inland NSW. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern, with the potential for widespread damaging winds that could be locally destructive. This is thanks to the strong winds in the upper atmosphere which will help thunderstorm activity to organise itself. In addition, the strong winds in the upper atmosphere can sometimes be dragged down to the surface from storm activity.
GFS LIs and EC rainfall showing instability and strong 500mb winds helping to push shower and storm activity a long way eastwards overnight. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre
Large hail is also possible, though this threat may lessen as storms track into eastern NSW, where they are expected to gradually weaken.
Forecast soundings from Melbourne to central NSW showing strong, but linear wind shear and moderate levels of instability. This is conducive to damaging winds and possibly large hail Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre
Weakening System in Queensland
Tomorrow, the system will begin to weaken, with only isolated showers and storms possible in Queensland, including parts of southeastern Queensland. Drier air will limit instability, making storm activity more isolated. While severe storms cannot be entirely ruled out, they are expected to be far less frequent than in recent days.
The outlook for tomorrow for SE QLD has continued to fluctuate, but drier, westerly winds will push close to the coastline meaning that any storms will likely be very isolated. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre
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