January 31, 2025
The worst is yet to come for northern Queensland, with potentially catastrophic flooding expected over the coming days as a slow-moving and complex low-pressure system tracks westward over land this weekend.
While the system is now unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone, the impacts will still be severe and widespread, with rainfall totals potentially exceeding 1000mm in some areas—on top of the 400-600mm already recorded.
Townsville radar this afternoon with the previous 7 days rainfall recorded in the circles. Source: MetCentre
Why Is This Event So Dangerous?
It’s often not the low itself that produces the most intense rainfall, but rather a convergence zone associated with it. In this scenario, there are two very humid airmasses involved:
Monsoonal westerly winds wrap around the northern and eastern side of the low, pulling in deep tropical moisture.
Southeasterly winds, enhanced by a Tasman Sea high, push up against this monsoonal airmass.
In addition, this is a slow moving system that's likely to persist for 4-5 days, which means there's multiple days of torrential rainfall expected.
Gale force or damaging wind gusts may occur along the coastline where very humid N to NW winds collide with the southeast winds bringing an intense band of convergence. Source: MetCentre
The result? Intense, prolonged rainfall developing along a narrow but highly active band of storms.
To make matters worse, mid- and upper-level winds are aligning with the convergence zone, allowing heavy rain and storms to repeatedly track over the same locations for hours—or even days—leading to an extreme flash flood risk.
Where Will the Heaviest Rainfall Be?
While widespread heavy rain will extend from Cairns to Mackay, the most extreme totals are expected to be more localised—most likely somewhere between Innisfail and Bowen, though this may still shift.
GFS, EC & ACCESS forecast rainfall (note these are all various timescales from 3.5-7 days, but all have extremely heavy rainfall during this period). Source: MetCentre
What to Expect in the Coming Days
Major river flooding is likely to develop resulting in significant access delays or areas being cut-off for prolonged periods at a time.
Flash flooding is expected, with rapidly rising water levels posing a significant danger to not only lives, but homes, businesses, and infrastructure.
Landslides and road closures are possible, particularly in steep terrain and low-lying areas.
This is a very serious flooding event, and we strongly encourage all residents and businesses to pay close attention to official warnings and prepare accordingly. Given the slow-moving nature of this system, the flood threat may not ease until early to mid-next week.
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