December 20, 2024
Much to the delight of many Australians and emergency services, Christmas 2024 is shaping up to be very different from last year. In 2023, a significant severe thunderstorm outbreak swept across eastern Australia, costing insurers more than $1.4 billion, with the Queensland government estimating the total cost to exceed $2.0 billion. The Gold Coast bore the brunt of the damage, experiencing a rare derecho on Christmas night.
Fortunately, despite the recent stormy weather and flooding in parts of Queensland, this year’s outlook couldn’t be more different. Stable conditions are expected across much of Australia, although it will be a little warm—particularly in the southeast on Boxing Day. Here’s the state-by-state outlook for Christmas Day, including capital city forecasts:
Queensland & Brisbane
Western Queensland will swelter with maximums well into the low 40s, while a weak ridge along the coastline will bring milder conditions to eastern Queensland. Isolated showers are likely along parts of the central to northern Queensland coastline, and southeastern Queensland is expected to remain fine. A weak trough may trigger isolated showers and storms in central inland Queensland, but this will be far less intense than recent weeks.
Brisbane: Fine and partly cloudy. Temperatures: 20–29°C
Forecast maximum temperatures and rainfall on Christmas day in Queensland. Source: MetCentre
NSW & Sydney
A weak high will dominate western NSW, bringing very warm to hot conditions with maximums nearing 40°C. In contrast, much of eastern NSW will enjoy pleasant temperatures under south to southeast winds. Rainfall risk remains low, making for a lovely Christmas across the state.
Sydney: Fine and mostly sunny. Temperatures: 18–27°C
Canberra: Fine and mostly sunny. Temperatures: 9–32°C
Forecast maximum temperatures and rainfall on Christmas day in NSW. Source: MetCentre
Victoria & Melbourne
Northerly winds will usher in a warm Christmas for most of Victoria, with highs reaching the high 30s in the northwest and low 30s in Melbourne. It’ll be cooler along the ranges. Sunshine will dominate, so don’t forget the sunscreen. On Boxing Day, temperatures could soar to 40°C in Melbourne, making it the hottest Boxing Day in years.
Melbourne: Fine and mostly sunny. Temperatures: 15–32°C
Forecast maximum temperatures and rainfall on Christmas day in Victoria. Source: MetCentre
South Australia & Adelaide
South Australia will be hot, with western areas pushing into the mid 40s, while maximums in most regions will hover in the mid to high 30s. While much of the state will stay dry, isolated high-based showers and storms could develop in the western half, bringing a risk of strong wind gusts in the hot and dry conditions.
Adelaide: Fine and mostly sunny. Temperatures: 19–36°C
Forecast maximum temperatures and rainfall on Christmas day in South Australia. Source: MetCentre
Western Australia & Perth
A broad trough across northern WA may bring isolated showers and storms, while the northern and eastern regions bake under widespread highs in the low to mid 40s. The Pilbara may even approach the high 40s. Thankfully, a cool southwesterly airflow will settle over the southwest, bringing relief to Perth, where temperatures are expected to cool significantly after exceeding 40°C earlier in the week.
Perth: Fine, partly cloudy. Temperatures: 15–24°C
Forecast maximum temperatures and rainfall on Christmas day in Western Australia. Source: MetCentre
Northern Territory & Darwin
Expect the usual steamy December day, with the chance of an afternoon shower or storm across the Top End. Elsewhere, isolated showers and storms may extend along a weak trough in western areas, while maximums across much of the Territory—apart from the Top End—will exceed 40°C.
Darwin: Chance of an afternoon shower/storm. Temperatures: 26–35°C
Forecast maximum temperatures and rainfall on Christmas day over the Northern Territory. Source: MetCentre
Tasmania & Hobart
After a pre-Christmas cold snap, temperatures will warm up a little on Christmas Day, with pleasant highs in the low 20s across much of the state. An approaching upper trough may generate isolated showers in western areas, but the rest of Tasmania should remain fine and pleasant.
Hobart: Fine, partly cloudy. Temperatures: 12–24°C
Forecast maximum temperatures and rainfall on Christmas day in Tasmania. Source: MetCentre
Wishing You a Merry Christmas
Whatever the weather, we hope everyone has a safe, merry, and happy Christmas and a wonderful 2025. Thank you for trusting us to be your partner in weather intelligence, and we look forward to working with our amazing partners and clients in the year ahead.
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