October 12, 2024
In a clear sign that storm season has well and truly begun, thunderstorms are once again in the forecast for northeastern NSW and southeastern Queensland. These storms bring a risk of large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts.
Hail near Jandowae, QLD from last Wednesday's storm activity. Source: Weatherwatch
Inland NE NSW & Far Corner of SE QLD At Risk
The main threat is for inland areas of the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast, as well as the eastern half of the Northern Tablelands. Later in the day, this risk may extend into the far southeastern corner of Queensland.
G3 rainfall today and GFS Lifted Indices showing that instability and storm development should favour inland areas of NE NSW and possibly extend into parts of the Southeast Coast. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre.
Upper Trough & Southerly Change driving Storm Development
The storms are being driven by an upper trough that is bringing cold air into the upper atmosphere. This cold air makes the atmosphere more unstable and creates ideal conditions for hail development. Additionally, a southerly change will sweep up the coastline, adding wind shear and moisture to the mix, further enhancing the storm potential.
GFS 500mb temperatures falling to -15 to -17 over the region which is ideal for the development of hail given the setup. A southerly change will also add convergence and lift to help initiate storm activity. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre.
Storms To Mostly Track N/NE
Clusters of storms are expected to track north/northeast today. Thankfully, the more populated areas of the Southeast Coast, including Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, are less likely to experience the brunt of the storm activity. The strongest storms are expected to remain further inland.
G3 forecast sounding for the Scenic Rim of SE QLD today showing supportive wind shear, turning and instability for the development of severe storms just ahead, and behind the southerly change. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre.
While today’s storm setup may not be as severe as Wednesday's, it's still essential to stay vigilant. Keep an eye on the sky, follow any weather warnings, and ensure your property is secured if you're in the risk areas.
If you're concerned about hail - remember that MetCentre allows you to view live radar with hail and severity markers on it which is a great way to identify problem storms.
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