TC Alfred Increasingly Likely to Edge Towards Queensland Coastline

February 25, 2025

Alfred Begins Its Southward March

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is set to track southward across the Coral Sea tonight and into tomorrow, steadily intensifying and likely reaching Category 3 strength. In the short-term, Alfred poses little direct concern to the Queensland coastline. However, it will contribute to increasing swells and strengthening winds along the central to southern Queensland coast as the week progresses—a common effect when tropical cyclones interact with a high-pressure ridge to the south.

Alfred is likely to generally track southwards over the coming days but may adopt a more southwest movement later in the week. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre

Potential Swing Towards the Queensland Coastline

By the weekend, an upper ridge is expected to develop across southeastern Australia, which may influence Alfred’s movement, potentially exerting a more easterly steering flow through the Coral Sea. This shift could push Alfred westward, bringing it closer to Queensland and increasing winds and showers along the central to southern coastline into early next week.

A mid-level ridge will approach later this week, helping to exert a more easterly influence across the Coral Sea which may push Alfred a little closer to the central Queensland coastline. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre

While confidence is growing that Alfred will track closer to Queensland, it’s crucial to separate a westward movement from a direct coastal impact. The likelihood of an impact naturally increases as the system moves westward, but a landfall is far from certain.

Complicating Factors: The Role of Mid-Latitude Systems

As March approaches, mid-latitude weather systems are expected to become more active, with cold fronts, troughs, or southerly changes likely moving into the region mid to late next week. These features could:

• Push Alfred away from the coast, keeping Queensland in the clear

• Keep Alfred near the coastline, increasing wind and rain impacts

• Force Alfred northwest, keeping Queenslanders on high alert

Given the Coral Sea’s history of unpredictable cyclone movement—often looping or zigzagging—long-range confidence remains low.

Some forecast models (such as ACCESS) have a larger upper trough arriving early next week that would keep Alfred offshore.

What to Expect in the Coming Days

Regardless of Alfred’s long-term movement, Queensland’s central coastline will likely experience:

🌬️ Strengthening winds in coastal areas, with gale-force gusts possible

🌊 Rough seas and increasing swell from the southward-moving system

🌧️ Isolated showers along the coast, though no significant rainfall expected in the immediate future

If Alfred continues tracking closer, stronger winds and heavier rainfall could develop from Sunday or Monday onwards—but that remains uncertain at this stage.

Accumulated rainfall to 10am Monday morning shows any significant rainfall remaining offshore. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre.

What We Know vs. What We Don’t

✔ What we know:

• Alfred is likely to track southwards and eventually track into the central or southern Coral Sea

• An eventual movement toward Queensland is increasingly likely

• IF Alfred does bring more significant impacts, they wouldn’t begin before Sunday or Monday

❓ What we don’t know:

• The long-term track remains highly uncertain—several models keep Alfred offshore

• Whether there will be significant impacts - the difference between a system staying even 200km offshore versus crossing the coastline would drastically change Queensland’s weather impacts

Significant variation exists across the models about Alfred's future movement. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre.

Final Thoughts

At this stage, there’s no need to panic, but it’s wise to stay informed! The Coral Sea is notorious for its erratic cyclone movements, and the forecast will continue evolving. Queenslanders should keep an eye on updates in the coming days, particularly along the central and southern coastline.

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