January 19, 2025
The second tropical cyclone of the Australian season, Tropical Cyclone Sean, was officially named at 11am EST (9am WST) this morning. Currently a category 1 tropical cyclone, Sean is expected to intensify into a category 3 quickly as it tracks to the WSW over very warm ocean waters. The system's path is being steered with relatively high confidence due to a high-pressure system located about 3km above the surface in Western Australia. This system is guiding Sean in a general WSW to SW direction.
EC Max wind gusts (knots), showing damaging winds and gales are likely along the coastal fringes of NW WA. Source: MetCentre.
GFS Ensemble models have good track alignment over the coming days though path will become less certain later in the week. Source: MetCentre.
While Sean is unlikely to make direct landfall, heavy rain and damaging winds are still expected to affect areas close to the coastline. As Sean continues southward, it is forecast to weaken over cooler waters in the Indian Ocean.
Heavy rainfall is forecast along the coastline of northwestern Western Australia that may generate coastal flooding. Source: MetCentre.
Increased Tropical Activity on the Horizon
Sean’s development coincides with the approach of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) from the west, which has amplified monsoonal activity across northwestern Australia. This marks the beginning of what could be a more active couple of weeks for the tropics across northern Australia.
Forecast models are hinting at an increased likelihood of tropical cyclone formation across northeastern Australia in early February. However, it’s important to note that these models indicate trends, not guarantees. A higher chance of development doesn’t necessarily mean a system will form or impact specific areas.
As always, our team will be closely monitoring the tropics in the weeks ahead to keep you informed and prepared for any potential developments.
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